Reeves County
Probabilistic Emulation of the Community Radiative Transfer Model Using Machine Learning
Howard, Lucas, Subramanian, Aneesh C., Thompson, Gregory, Johnson, Benjamin, Auligne, Thomas
The continuous improvement in weather forecast skill over the past several decades is largely due to the increasing quantity of available satellite observations and their assimilation into operational forecast systems. Assimilating these observations requires observation operators in the form of radiative transfer models. Significant efforts have been dedicated to enhancing the computational efficiency of these models. Computational cost remains a bottleneck, and a large fraction of available data goes unused for assimilation. To address this, we used machine learning to build an efficient neural network based probabilistic emulator of the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), applied to the GOES Advanced Baseline Imager. The trained NN emulator predicts brightness temperatures output by CRTM and the corresponding error with respect to CRTM. RMSE of the predicted brightness temperature is 0.3 K averaged across all channels. For clear sky conditions, the RMSE is less than 0.1 K for 9 out of 10 infrared channels. The error predictions are generally reliable across a wide range of conditions. Explainable AI methods demonstrate that the trained emulator reproduces the relevant physics, increasing confidence that the model will perform well when presented with new data.
- North America > United States > Colorado > Boulder County > Boulder (0.05)
- North America > United States > Texas > Reeves County (0.04)
- North America > United States > California > San Diego County > San Diego (0.04)
- (2 more...)
The Physics-Informed Neural Network Gravity Model: Generation III
Martin, John, Schaub, Hanspeter
Scientific machine learning and the advent of the Physics-Informed Neural Network (PINN) show considerable potential in their capacity to identify solutions to complex differential equations. Over the past two years, much work has gone into the development of PINNs capable of solving the gravity field modeling problem -- i.e.\ learning a differentiable form of the gravitational potential from position and acceleration estimates. While the past PINN gravity models (PINN-GMs) have demonstrated advantages in model compactness, robustness to noise, and sample efficiency; there remain key modeling challenges which this paper aims to address. Specifically, this paper introduces the third generation of the Physics-Informed Neural Network Gravity Model (PINN-GM-III) which solves the problems of extrapolation error, bias towards low-altitude samples, numerical instability at high-altitudes, and compliant boundary conditions through numerous modifications to the model's design. The PINN-GM-III is tested by modeling a known heterogeneous density asteroid, and its performance is evaluated using seven core metrics which showcases its strengths against its predecessors and other analytic and numerical gravity models.
- North America > United States > Colorado > Boulder County > Boulder (0.04)
- Asia > Japan (0.04)
- North America > United States > Virginia > Fairfax County > Reston (0.04)
- (4 more...)
- Education (0.54)
- Government (0.45)
Machine Learning Parameterization of the Multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) Convection Scheme
Zhong, Xiaohui, Yu, Xing, Li, Hao
Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.
- Asia > China > Beijing > Beijing (0.04)
- South America > Chile (0.04)
- South America > Argentina (0.04)
- (6 more...)